Global Furniture Industry Adapting under Uncertainty
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
According to the IMF (October 25), trade policy uncertainty has been the dominant factor in 2025. Tariff shock turned out to be smaller than initially expected. Households and businesses front-loaded consumption and investment in anticipation of higher tariffs, giving a temporary boost to global activity early in the year. Trade flows have begun to reroute toward third countries.
With the global economy cooling and higher tariffs fully kicking in, trade growth is expected to slow in 2026. This also applies to the international furniture trade: CSIL preliminary estimates indicate a roughly 1% increase in current USD for 2025, but the effects of tariffs introduced in mid-October will become evident in 2026.
Trade policy uncertainty remains high in the absence of clear and durable agreements among trading partners. In this complex environment, CSIL launched a survey among sector associations to gain a field-based understanding of emerging industry dynamics. These associations, closely engaged with companies, observe daily challenges, solutions, and evolving strategies. Key findings show that 2025 was challenging yet also offered opportunities.
LOOKING AHEAD, WHAT MAIN DIFFICULTIES DO YOU EXPECT COMPANIES WILL FACE IN 2026?
SHARE OF RESPONDENTS ASSIGNING A SCORE OF 4 OR HIGHER (EXTREMELY RELEVANT).
A large majority (73%) highlighted “leveraging digital tools for marketing, sales, and trade facilitation” as a key opportunity, while 63% emphasized developing niche or high-value products to meet international demand.
The main challenges reported in 2025 were lower export volumes and declining price competitiveness. South America and Africa—as export destinations—were exceptions: reduced exports were less of a concern there, although rising export costs were noted. New tariffs primarily affected trade with the US, while broader uncertainty impacted nearly all regions. Trade responds gradually to policy changes, while uncertainty about future policy can widely affect trade in the present. To cope with this evolving scenario, 65% of respondents reported that associated companies are exploring new or emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, South America, and India.
Looking ahead to 2026, respondents expect rising tariffs in North America and more non-tariff barriers in both North America and Europe. Non-tariff barriers are seen as a particularly pressing concern. Reflecting this, 57% of respondents flagged “higher compliance costs” as an extremely relevant challenge.
Despite these hurdles, several positive factors could support export performance. New and ongoing trade agreements, such as the EU-Mercosur deal, Vietnam’s FTAs and others, could open new markets and improve conditions. Additionally, growing global demand for sustainable and certified products is seen as a positive trend, encouraging eco-friendly and innovative furniture.
Source: CSIL World Furniture Magazine #08, December 2025
- Browse the Magazine https://www.worldfurnitureonline.com/editorial/world-furniture-magazine-08-2025
- Discover all issues at https://www.worldfurnitureonline.com/magazine
CSIL keeps the global furniture industry monitored through the flagship Report ‘World Furniture Outlook’ which offers insights into furniture market trends, historical series of basic data (furniture production, consumption, imports, exports), macroeconomic indicators, and prospects of the furniture market, highlighting regional dynamics and providing data for 100 countries. Find out more at https://www.worldfurnitureonline.com/report/world-furniture-outlook/
